Yesterday’s NYT has an interesting op-ed from Roger Cohen. I was surprised to perceive residual cold-war mentality, and a prevailing sense of America’s role as safe-keeping democracy. The following paragraph in particular jumped out at me:
But Zapatero’s more concerned about “certain gestures that may provoke Russian nationalism.” He seems to buy into Vladimir Putin’s nonsense about the “encirclement” of Russia, which spans from Eastern Europe to Northern Asia, by the likes of Lilliputian Georgia, if it were allowed into NATO.
“To think that Georgia will be more secure if it’s in NATO, that won’t be the case,” he said. “All we’ll achieve is a greater divide between Moscow and the rest of the world.”
Wrong. NATO locks in liberal democracy. It brings stability and prosperity, not threats, to Russia’s environs.
America: wake up. We are in a different global political dynamic. Our influence and power has lost the potency it used to have (debates are on about whether it waned or because other nations have gained) whereas other nations have developed greater influence. In fact when the dividends of investing in international relationships start paying for countries like China, the world will wake up to a new order where sole US dominance is no longer obvious and going it alone will no longer be an option. NATO will cease to be the center of military power when the interests in dispute will be in places far from Europe such as Africa and South America. In that scenario, where there is no single dominant power, the UN or multi-lateral cooperation organizations/groups will be guiding global interaction.
Mr. Cohen does not see the world in which, although Russia is concerned about its national security, it next political movement is entirely economic. Conflict with Russia will occur more outside Europe (although Ukraine and its natural gas will continue to play a part) thereby rendering an expanded NATO a poor choice of investment for the US.
This pragmatic view is also at odds with Mr. Cohen’s assessment of NATO locking in liberal democracy. Such as support for General Musharraf in Pakistan? Sarcasm aside, NATO offers no such guarantees as global conflict has moved away from political philosophy (capitalism vs communism) to the pursuit of economic interests. NATO has not been used to defend liberal democracy in the recent past and has its role is questionable in a world where economic interests drive issues. With multi-faceted, and in some cases diverging, economic interests it is hard to think of too many scenarios where a NATO alliance will be consensually willing to intervene – as clearly evident from the Iraq war that despite being couched in terms of global security, then terror and finally spreading democracy, is ultimately only explained by the US seeking energy security.
Finally we hear about the schadenfreude from many about the so-called collapse of a US-style capitalist system but make no mistake, free-markets are not going away and frankly it is a little naive to perceive Russia as looking to extend totalitarianism and tyranny. Yes, Russia has shown political movement in that direction, and to some extent, it seems to sit between western free-market based democracies, and Iranian-style oligarchical governance. But what is the lesson from Bush’s efforts in Iraq if not “what is good for the goose may not be so for the gander”.